With a sagging economy, an unpopular war and a Republican president with limited public support, it would be easy to write off John McCain’s chances of being our next president.
Barack Obama does seem to have all the good cards. But it would be premature to conclude that the senator from Arizona cannot win. Not only are there still a few more cards to be dealt, the campaign provides a chance to see how the candidates play their cards.
To improve McCain’s hand, he and his fellow Republicans would benefit from accomplishing the following three things over the next four days in the Twin Cities.
First, the GOP needs to continue to hammer Obama as not being ready to lead. That theme, which has been pushed in recent weeks, gained McCain some traction in the polls and he and his supporters need to continue to push this point — especially after the boost Obama received from his own convention last week.
Second, McCain must establish stronger credentials on handling the economy. Doubts about his ability to handle our troubled economy grew following his gaffe 10 days ago about not knowing the number of houses he owns. That slip made him look out of touch and not in tune with the concerns of average Americans.
McCain needs to reassert himself as a fiscal conservative who will not raise taxes. These are longtime Republican issues and he should be able, assuming no more mistakes, to play this card.
Separate from Bush
Third, McCain must find a way to distance himself from President Bush, while maintaining the support of Christian conservatives. The president’s popularity lags with the broader public, but he remains a favorite among evangelicals. McCain needs to retain their support, but he also must reach out to moderate voters. In other words, McCain needs to show more flexibility than our gymnasts demonstrated in the recent Beijing Olympics.
Any effort by McCain to both embrace Bush and push him away will be made harder by the Democrats. Obama and his supporters used their recent convention to tie McCain to Bush, asking the American public whether they want another four years of economic problems and foreign policy setbacks.
This strategy of linking McCain to Bush may work because the senator has become a bigger supporter of the president in recent years. McCain once challenged the Bush tax cuts, but now embraces them. And few are more closely aligned with Bush’s policy in Iraq than McCain.
McCain’s acceptance speech will be critical in finding a way to scramble back to the center, while trying not to alienate the GOP base.
While the cards favor Obama, McCain remains capable of playing the winning hand. We’ll know a lot more about the quality of the Arizona senator’s cards when the final gavel falls in Minneapolis this Thursday.
At this point, I’m betting McCain and his fellow Republicans have an ace or two up their sleeves that will make the 2008 election a close contest.
Media Contact: Amy Wolf, (615) 322-NEWS
Amy.wolf@vanderbilt.edu
John Geer is a Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt University. This opinion piece was originally published in The Tennessean on Aug. 31.