Why presidential primaries remain fluid and why the polls are often wrong: A central fact of the 2008 nomination process is that many citizens are undecided or have weakly held preferences. This creates instability in voters’ views of the major candidates, says political scientist John Geer. To further complicate matters, it is hard to establish who the “likely voters” are. In contrast to recent nomination battles, there are heated contests for both the Democrats and Republicans, so pollsters face more of a challenge in figuring out in which primary various voters will cast ballots. This is especially true in states such as Tennessee where voters can decide on Election Day if they want to vote Democratic or Republican. The context of 2008, in short, is a recipe for bad predictions and error, says Geer. The Distinguished Professor of Political Science is an expert on campaigns, elections, public opinion and the impact of negative political ads. He can be reached at john.g.geer@vanderbilt.edu.
Sen. John McCain’s emergence as GOP presidential front-runner likely to cast shadow of Vietnam over general
election: McCain’s experience as a POW in North Vietnam for five and a half years, a key part of his biography, has been highlighted in his campaign’s commercials. However, presidential historian Thomas Alan Schwartz says what is even more important is how the Vietnam War has shaped his thinking and approach to American foreign policy and the war in Iraq. McCain believes that the United States lost in Vietnam when it failed to keep the promises it made to South Vietnam in the Paris Peace Treaties of January 1973. His perception is that the ignominious defeat that the United States suffered in Vietnam tarnished American credibility and encouraged Soviet adventurism around the world. McCain sees the Iraq war through this Vietnam experience, fearing that a premature American withdrawal and defeat would have even more severe consequences, encouraging terrorist actions around the world and even here at home. His commitment on this issue, which saw him support the Bush Administration’s surge even when it was politically unpopular, reflects the depth and intensity of his feeling about the Vietnam experience. Schwartz, a professor of history, teaches and writes about the making of American foreign policy, the role of alliance politics in U.S. foreign policy, the Vietnam War and the Cold War. He can be reached at thomas.a.schwartz@vanderbilt.edu.
Race relations between blacks and whites to be impacted by election outcome: The results of the 2008 presidential election will either improve or worsen race relations between blacks and whites, predicts political scientist and law professor Carol Swain. One can easily foresee a scenario where Sen. Obama wins the Democratic nomination and then loses the general election to Sen. McCain in a contest that will pit age, experience and perceived wisdom against glamour, youth and less experience, she says. If Obama loses the Democratic nomination, some blacks will lose their enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket and may stay home in November.If Obama wins the nomination and loses the general election, his loss will be attributed to white racism rather than his relative youth and less experience. Swain envisions McCain attracting some of Clinton’s former supporters who value her experience and like McCain because he is not the darling of the far right.And in a general election, it will be easy for the Republican nominee to make the case that the presidency is not a place for on-the-job-training. Swain, professor of political science and professor of law, teaches and writes about immigration, African American representation, race and public policy, affirmative action and the Voting Rights Act. She can be reached at carol.swain@vanderbilt.edu.
Presidential oratory can trump rhetoric for highly educated voters: The conventional wisdom might be that highly
educated voters – with their advanced cognitive skills and high levels of information – would be less likely to have the wool pulled over their eyes by rhetoric. That was not the case in research conducted by political scientist Christian Grose, who found that those with the most advanced educational degrees will be most strongly affected by complex rhetoric. Grose believes the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination is pertinent to these findings. At this stage of the campaign, Obama seems to be winning support for his superior rhetorical skills, while Clinton has the edge with voters on issues, Grose said. The assistant professor of political science focuses on American government and politics, including Southern elections, racial politics and elections, and Congress. Grose can be reached at christian.grose@vanderbilt.edu.
[Editor’s note: More information on Vanderbilt’s election, political and policy experts is available at www.vanderbilt.edu/news/election.]
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