It is no surprise that Fred Thompson has jumped into third place nationally among GOP presidential contenders, even without declaring his candidacy, said Vanderbilt University political scientist John Geer.
“Thompson is no stranger to the presidential sweepstakes, having considered but declining a run in 2000,” Geer said. “Given his exceptional campaigning skills and star power, buoyed by his acting career, he would be a formidable candidate. The big question is whether he could raise the funds needed for a presidential campaign. The answer is probably yes.”
Geer, however, believes that Thompson does not have as much time to make a decision about whether he wants to run for president as does former Vice President Al Gore. Both men continue to be the subject of much speculation among journalists and pundits on whether they might be late entries into the presidential race. “Gore has remnants remaining from his 2000 campaign organization that he could use, and the vice president has a greater ability to raise money than Thompson,” Geer said. “For Thompson, it would be more of a start-from-scratch operation.”
Thompson, said Geer, has an amazing ability to connect with the public – whether through campaigning, acting or substituting for radio legend Paul Harvey. He was wildly popular in Tennessee and has remained so. When Bob Corker was at a low point in his senatorial bid, he turned to Thompson to appear in his television advertising. A recent Tennessee poll showed him leading the pack among Republicans with 45 percent selecting him as their No. 1 choice.
Even though many political observers view Thompson as a threat to Mitt Romney’s support, Geer believes that Thompson stands to draw the most voters away from Rudolph Giuiliani and John McCain. Recent polls have shown Giuiliani’s support dropping several points after Thompson’s name was included in the mix.
Thompson’s candidacy would also provide another bump in the road for McCain. The fact that someone like Thompson could get so much attention so quickly underscores the problems with the two front-runners.
Some may wonder if Thompson’s announcement that he’s in remission from lymphoma is a source for concern. Of course, it is on the personal front, but Thompson has said that his life expectancy should not be affected. Geer said that the fact he is getting this information out now is further evidence Thompson continues to make plans for a possible run.
For both Thompson, who received his J.D. from Vanderbilt Law School, and Gore, who attended both Vanderbilt graduate and law schools, the question remains: does either or both have the desire to enter the meat grinder of presidential politics? Both have pretty good lives right now. Do they want to throw that away?
Geer has written three books on presidential politics: Nominating Presidents, From Tea Leaves to Opinion Polls, and In Defense of Negativity.
Media Contact: Ann Marie Deer Owens, 615-322-NEWS
annmarie.owens@vanderbilt.edu