(Vanderbilt has a broadcast facility with a dedicated fiber optic line for live TV interviews and an ISDN line for radio)
IRAQ
President Bush will have a difficult time shifting the national conversation away from Iraq, believes presidential historian Thomas Alan Schwartz. Although his State of the Union may contain some interesting proposals on health care, energy and the environment, a conflict as politicized as the Iraq war will still dominate headlines. “Historically, domestic issues tend to pale next to foreign policy when there is a military conflict,‘ Schwartz said. “Franklin Roosevelt once said that Dr. Win-the-War had replaced Dr. New Deal, and this same pattern influenced Harry Truman‘s Fair Deal and Lyndon Johnson‘s Great Society.” He added that the president will need the surge to work to acquire any significant traction for his domestic programs. Schwartz is a professor of history whose expertise includes U.S. foreign policy, trans-Atlantic politics, Vietnam and the Cold War. He can be reached at 615-343-4328 or thomas.a.schwartz@vanderbilt.edu.
This State of the Union will not play a huge role in shaping the legacy of President Bush, according to presidential scholar John Geer. “Bush‘s legacy is tied to Iraq and the outcome of the war, and his Jan. 10 speech only reinforced that fact,” Geer said. “With the Democrats controlling Congress, Bush will get less of what he wants, and Iraq will be the issue that consumes most of the oxygen in Washington, D.C.” Geer pointed out it is still too early to be sure what will happen in Iraq, but the chances seem slim that 20,000 more troops will prove to be a tipping point in favor of a transition to a stable democracy. “Observers, however, might have said about the same thing in August 1864 when the Civil War looked so grim for the North,” he said. “Yet in a few months the war was transformed and so was Lincoln‘s place in history.” Geer is a professor of political science who studies campaigns, negative ads, elections, the presidency and public opinion. Geer can be reached at 615-343-5746 or john.g.geer@vanderbilt.edu.
DOMESTIC ISSUES
Bush is likely to address domestic issues where the president, Democrats and moderate Republicans can find some common ground, says Assistant Professor of Political Science Christian Grose. “The president may try Bill Clinton‘s strategy of ‘triangulation,‘ vowing to stop and fight Democratic congressional attempts to block funding on Iraq and other initiatives, while still promising to work with Democrats on issues where there is agreement,” Grose said. “He also needs to justify his relevance to the public given his lame duck status and the Democratic majority in Congress, and he can use the State of the Union for this purpose.” Grose expects the president to try to present himself as a “uniter” during his first speech to a Democratic-controlled Congress. Grose, whose research areas include American and Southern politics, elections, campaigns, Congress and the president, can be reached at 615-322-6242 or christian.grose@vanderbilt.edu.
EDUCATION
Educational accountability expert awaits Bush‘s plan for No Child Left Behind. Andrew Porter, the Patricia and Rodes Hart Professor of Educational Leadership and Policy, can discuss the current status of No Child Left Behind and evaluate the president‘s plan for the program during his last two years in office. Porter, also the director of the Learning Sciences Institute at Vanderbilt‘s Peabody College, believes that in the long run, No Child Left Behind‘s goal of 100 percent of students proficient by 2014 is unworkable and unrealistic. However, he does cite short-run benefits of the legislation – educators trying harder to provide better instruction, particularly to low-income students, and the emphasis on research-based practices in the classroom. Porter was appointed by U.S. Education Secretary Margaret Spellings to serve on the governing board of “The Nation‘s Report Card,” also known as the National Assessment of Educational Progress, in May 2005. Porter can be reached at 615-322-5220 or andy.porter@vanderbilt.edu.
ENVIRONMENT
A significant investment by the United States is the only way to effectively address the environmental challenges facing the country and the world, says Distinguished Professor of History, emeritus, Paul K. Conkin. Bush‘s recommendations about global warming will be closely watched for signs that he is willing to think long-term on environmental issues. Conkin, author of The State of the Earth: Environmental Challenges on the Road to 2100 (University Press of Kentucky), can be reached at 615-298-1161 or paul.k.conkin@vanderbilt.edu.
Media contact: Ann Marie Deer Owens, 615-322-NEWS
annmarie.owens@vanderbilt.edu