Election outcome helps put to rest one of the oft cited pieces of conventional wisdom about negative campaigning — that attack advertising depresses turnout, says John Geer, professor of political science. It appears that turnout was up in 2006 from 2002 and yet 2006 was surely more negative than four years ago, Geer says. There may be reasons not to like negative ads, but lower turnout is not among them. Geer says that Corker‘s narrow win in Tennessee can be interpreted several ways. Some will contend that race played a role in the outcome. Geer says that is possible, but Tennessee is a redder state than many realize. President Bush‘s popularity in this state is about 50 percent. That is far above the national average and makes Tennessee look more like Texas than Virginia, he says. Geer, an expert on campaigns, elections, polls and negative ads, can be reached at 615-343-5746 or by email at john.g.geer@vanderbilt.edu.
Since Harold Ford Jr. vs. Bob Corker was an open seat, Ford had trouble tying Corker to the unpopular Bush administration, which worked in other states against Republican incumbents, says Assistant Professor of Political Science Christian Grose. Ford‘s campaign was also hurt in the last 10 days by anti-Ford push polls sent across the state and Corker‘s new media team. The number of highly enthusiastic supporters for Ford across the state outnumbered Corker‘s very strong supporters dramatically, as noted by the larger numbers showing up at Ford rallies compared to Corker‘s. However, a slim majority of the voters, while not enthusiastic about either candidate, decided to vote for Corker. One advantage for Corker was his strong performance in the ring counties surrounding Nashville compared to previous GOP candidates. Christian Grose, who studies Congress, elections and Southern politics, can be reached at 615-322-6242 or christian.grose@vanderbilt.edu.
Democrats in Congress now have the ability to put their issues on the agenda, and agenda control is key to being in charge on Capitol Hill, says Professor of Political Science Bruce Oppenheimer. In addition, the returns signify new oversight of the Bush administration that could not happen under a Republican-controlled Congress. Oppenheimer sees similarities between the 1994 GOP take-over in the House and the Democrats‘ big wins in 2006. He anticipates that the minimum wage increase and Medicare are among the issues that Democrats will take up quickly in the 110th Congress. Oppenheimer, who teaches and writes about Congress, legislative policy and elections, can be reached at 615-322-6232 or bruce.i.oppenheimer@vanderbilt.edu.
Voters in the 2006 elections show they prefer a politically divided government, with more checks and balances on presidential leadership, says Professor of History Thomas Alan Schwartz. While many interpret the results as a complete rejection of Bush policies in Iraq, Schwartz does not think Democrats in Congress will call for any drastic changes, like complete troop withdrawal. Lawmakers will certainly investigate what went wrong in Iraq and mostly likely push to implement the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group that is co-chaired by former Secretary of State James Baker, he believes. Looking back at the Vietnam War, even when the Democrats prevailed in Congress in the early 1970s, they did not vote for immediate cuts in funding for the war. They waited until the American soldiers had left. On the other hand, Schwartz says President Bush will be forced to make leadership changes, including the Secretary of Defense, and push harder on the Iraqi government to stabilize. Schwartz, a presidential historian and foreign policy scholar, can be reached at 615-343-4328 or thomas.a.schwartz@vanderbilt.edu.
Youtube, Google and other video-sharing websites have a significant impact on the news coverage and voter awareness of various campaigns, according to Bruce Barry, professor of management and sociology. This is the first major election in which non-journalists were shadowing candidates with cameras and then posting their videos on popular Internet sites. For example, Harold Ford Jr.‘s street confrontation with Bob Corker in Memphis was posted on www.youtube.com as were controversial negative ads in the campaign. Even if many voters are not watching these videos, they draw attention to events that otherwise the mainstream media might overlook. In addition, there was an expansion of effective blogging about the campaigns, with data showing more people now reading political blogs. Various forms of new media could have an impact on close races, giving undecideds a reason to vote or not to vote for a particular candidate. Barry, who teaches “Technology, Media, Culture and Society,” can be reached at 615-322-3489 or bruce.barry@vanderbilt.edu.
Media contact: Ann Marie Deer Owens, 615-322-NEWS
annmarie.owens@vanderbilt.edu