The following Vanderbilt Latin American experts can discuss the impact of Castro on the Cuban political landscape:
Fidel Castro’s serious illness could signal bumpy times ahead for the Cuban government:”When you have dictatorships that revolve around the persona of one individual, they tend to be very brittle,” according to political scientist Mitchell Seligson. “It is difficult to imagine how Castro’s charisma and leadership style could be passed along to Cuba’s next leader, whoever it is. The system could easily become unstable.” Seligson said the major question ahead is whether Cuba, absent Castro, will undergo an orderly transition of power or whether there will be chaos. While no one predicted the fall of Communism in the Soviet Union and its satellite nations, there are different dynamics in Cuba. The Soviet Union had imposed Communism on its nearby Eastern European neighbors, but Cuba is more of a “home-grown, independent regime.” A rapid and smooth transition to democratic rule would be more difficult. Unfortunately, the repressive nature of the Cuban state has made it very difficult for scholars to determine precisely how legitimate the existing regime really is. Seligson has been invited by Cuban scholars to carry out research on Cuban views about democracy and their government. However, he said the government placed too many restrictions on his research for him to participate.
Seligson, who is director of the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) and the Centennial Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt, can be reached at 615-322-6238 or by email: m.seligson@yahoo.com.
Castro remains dominant political figure: Historian Jane Landers has been conducting research in Cuba since 1991 and
noted the continued popularity of Castro despite periods of great deprivation and episodes of sometimes brutal repression. “I was struck by the current generation of Cubans who have known no other leader and seem to think Castro will live forever,” she said. “While Americans would like to think that no one wants to live under Castro’s autocratic regime, these citizens have grown up in the system. Also, there is a constant campaign to promote Castro’s personality through televised and personal appearances as well as ubiquitous posters and grafitti.” Landers sees the 75-year-old Raul Castro as being only an interim leader and not a long-term successor to his brother.
She can be reached at 615-322-3403 or by email: jane.landers@vanderbilt.edu.
Media contact: Ann Marie Deer Owens, 615-322-NEWS
annmarie.owens@vanderbilt.edu