The following Vanderbilt political scientists can discuss the 2006 Tennessee U.S. Senate race:
Tough primary could work to GOP’s advantage. The conventional view is that the increasingly bitter battle among the Republican candidates in the Tennessee Senate race will hurt the GOP nominee. John Geer disagrees, saying the divisive primary campaign could prove to be a boon for the nominee. He will be battle-tested with an organization that is well oiled and ready for the general election. Geer says that while there will be concern about the increasing number of attack ads at the end of the campaign, they can provide valuable information to help voters sort out the candidates. Ed Bryant, Bob Corker and Van Hilleary share many similar views, so attack ads could help highlight key differences.
Geer, a professor of political science, teaches and writes about political campaigns, elections, public opinion and the presidency. He is the author of In Defense of Negativity: Attack Ads in Presidential Campaigns and can be reached at john.g.geer@vanderbilt.edu.
Primaries often volatile at the end: If a candidate seems to be falling behind in a three-way contest, voters are not likely to
stick with that candidate, says Bruce Oppenheimer. Voters who identify themselves as the religious right will take a hard look at Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary and decide which one has the greatest chance of beating Bob Corker. That’s why there could be a wide swing in the polls the last few weeks, Oppenheimer says. In addition, turnout is extremely important, so intensity of support is as crucial as breadth of support. Oppenheimer does not expect either party to be under-financed in the general election, but the Republican nominee might have to focus more on raising money at the start of the general campaign. That could be a slight advantage for Harold Ford Jr., who has no major opposition in the Democratic primary.
Bruce Oppenheimer is a professor of political science who has done extensive research on Congress and legislative policy and has taught courses on campaigns and elections. He can be reached at bruce.i.oppenheimer@vanderbilt.edu.
Fundraising vs. issues: Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant have attacked Bob Corker for not being conservative enough on pro-life issues and immigration, while Corker claims he is a true conservative, says Christian Grose. Meanwhile, Corker has substantially out-fundraised these two opponents. If the election is decided on issues only, conservative Republicans might choose Hilleary or Bryant, according to Grose. However, fundraising and organizational advantages seem to favor Corker, who is running many more advertisements than his competitors. Grose says the election will come down to whether Corker’s money advantage will make a difference versus Hilleary’s and Bryant’s attempts to “out-conservative” Corker. Turnout will also be critically important as each hails from different parts of the state. The candidate that does best in GOP vote-rich East Tennessee may win the Republican primary.
christian.grose@vanderbilt.edu.
Media contact: Ann Marie Deer Owens, 615-322-NEWS
annmarie.owens@vanderbilt.edu