Recount could strengthen Mexico’s electoral system, says VU political scientist

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — A vote-by-vote recount in Mexico’s contested presidential election would ideally convince all Mexicans that this was a clean election and not a repeat of 1988, said Vanderbilt political scientist Jonathan Hiskey. Lopez Obrador, who claims there was voter fraud, lost to Felipe Calderon by less than one percent, according to the official results.

“I have seen too much progress during the past 20 years to believe that the 2006 election was anywhere close to what happened in 1988, when there were widespread irregularities,” Hiskey said. “However, a recount, if done properly, could help bring legitimacy to the ultimate winner and give the Mexico’s Federal Electoral Institute a chance to shine.”

Hiskey recently returned to Mexico to interview voters in a rural town near Guadalajara. He said he did “man on the street’ interviews and also some with city leaders to gauge what progress has been with Mexico’s electoral institutions. He said that the 2006 election was the final event for collecting data for a book he is writing on political and economic transitions in the country. “By and large, the people there were extremely positive about the changes that have been made in their lives and the area’s development over the past 20 years.

Hiskey found that there is a strong desire among those he talked with to respect the decision of their country’s electoral court in the 2006 election. He believes that if, as most observers expect, Calderon is declared the winner and Obrador chooses not to abide by the final decision of the electoral court, he risks losing more than he gains. “Obrador’s supporters will have dwindled down only to the most disenfranchised or the most loyal supporters,” he said. “Most of the rest of the nation will be ready to move on and accept Calderon as their president.”

Hiskey said that the United States generally would prefer Calderon as the next president of Mexico, but either candidate will be able to work with the Bush administration. “I do not think either candidate would be willing to do anything to jeopardize Mexico’s relationship with the United States.”

He noted that while Calderon has strong support from the middle and upper classes of Mexican society, Obrador’s strength is with the poorer voters, including those who tend not to have much contact with the United States. In addition, there is a significant group of well-educated voters in Mexico City who oppose Calderon for his positions on economic policy.

Listen to an interview with Jonathan Hiskey.

Media contact: Ann Marie Deer Owens, 615-343-NEWS
annmarie.owens@vanderbilt.edu