{Vanderbilt has a broadcast facility with a dedicated fiber optic line for live TV interviews and an ISDN line for radio}
George W. Bush has an important primetime opportunity to regain some presidential momentum by delivering a compelling State of the Union address, according to Vanderbilt political scientist John Geer. “Political observers will look to see if Bush, who has given strong State of the Union speeches in the past, decides to play offense or defense.” He believes that if Bush proposes major policy initiatives in areas such as Social Security and health care, he will be working to control the national agenda for the remainder of his term. On the other hand, he could play defense by not making many new proposals and just trying to protect existing accomplishments. “The speech could follow Karl Rove’s recent address, making the case that we are in a “post 9-11″ world.” Geer says that the approaching mid-term elections are sure to affect the content of Bush’s message, since Republicans are worried about maintaining control in November of Congress. That control is essential if Bush wants to push new policies in the last two years of his term.
John Geer is a professor of political science at Vanderbilt and author of the forthcoming book In Defense of Negativity: Attack Ads in Presidential Campaigns (University of Chicago Press 2006). To speak with Geer, call 615-343-5746 or email: john.g.geer@vanderbilt.edu.
“Stay the course” won’t cut it when President Bush discusses U.S. foreign policy in Iraq during his State of the Union address, says Vanderbilt presidential historian Thomas Alan Schwartz. “The president must convey the message that significant progress has been made and we are on the road to reducing the number of troops in Iraq. Continuing violence makes that a controversial message, but the president is likely to emphasize the recent election and efforts to form a government that includes the Sunnis. He will need to be careful not to promise more than can be accomplished if he decides to mention troop withdrawal in Iraq.” Schwartz believes the speech provides an excellent chance for the president to stress the continuing war on terror and reconnect with the voters about foreign policy and defense, issues that have brought strong support previously for Bush.
Thomas Alan Schwartz is a Vanderbilt professor of history who specializes in the history of American foreign relations and contemporary American foreign policy. He authored Lyndon Johnson and Europe: In the Shadow of Vietnam and is working on a biography of Henry Kissinger. To reach Schwartz directly, call 202-691-4334 or email: thomas.a.schwartz@vanderbilt.edu.
Democrats are expected to blast the president on several issues after his State of the Union address in hopes of weakening him – and weakening his party for the November elections, says Christian Grose, a Vanderbilt expert on Congress. “Specifically, they will likely focus on Bush’s and the Republican Party’s perceived weaknesses: ethics problems in the wake of the Abramoff scandal, mismanagement after Katrina, the ongoing war in Iraq and the privacy issues raised by alleged government snooping.” Grose says Democrats may also criticize Bush about implementation problems with the new Medicare prescription drug plan.
Christian Grose is a Vanderbilt assistant professor of history whose research includes elections, campaigns, legislative representation, and Congress and the president. To speak with Grose, call 615-322-6242 or email: christian.grose@vanderbilt.edu.
Media contact: Ann Marie Deer Owens, 615-322-NEWS
annmarie.owens@vanderbilt.edu