January 27, 2003
President Bush’s Jan. 28 State of the Union address is his most important opportunity to date to make the case for going to war with Iraq, according to Thomas Schwartz, a Vanderbilt University expert on U.S. foreign policy and alliance politics. Schwartz says Bush is likely to cite Iraq’s long record of violation of UN resolutions and emphasize the appalling record of the regime on human rights. The importance of Bush’s making a strong appeal to the American public cannot be overstated, especially in light of widespread international opposition to war with Iraq.
On the other hand, Schwartz anticipates the State of the Union speech will contain a strong pitch in favor of Bush’s economic program. The president is likely to emphasize that he is in touch with the concerns of ordinary Americans about the economy. His father’s record on this is clearly in his mind. The president knows that even if there is a successful campaign in Iraq, the economy may well loom larger for the voters in 2004. Bush certainly would not want to see a rerun of “It’s the economy, stupid,” Schwartz says.
Editor’s note: Thomas Schwartz is an associate professor of history who has done extensive research on the role of the American presidency in foreign affairs. He is the author of the forthcoming book Lyndon Johnson and Europe: In the Shadow of Vietnam (Harvard University Press 2003). He can be reached at (615) 343-4328 (office) or by email at thomas.a.schwartz@vanderbilt.edu.